SEOUL – South Korea’s political chaos, sparked by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s temporary declaration of martial law and his subsequent impeachment by parliament, has shaken the nation’s standing ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
That’s raising concerns that Seoul’s negotiating leverage vis-à-vis the incoming American leader, who in his previous term called on South Korea to pay more for US troops stationed there, may be compromised at a crucial juncture for bilateral ties and the power balance on the Korean Peninsula.
“The current political crisis only dilutes South Korea’s ability to forge more resilient foreign policies and to mitigate outstanding national security threats,” said Lee Chung-min, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.
Lee noted intensifying regional security threats from China, North Korea and Russia and Trump’s threatened trade wars, including with China, as key challenges for South Korea in what some see as an emerging political vacuum.
Trump’s “America First” agenda and recent rhetorical lurch toward possible US expansionism in shock comments about incorporating Greenland, Panama and Canada have highlighted once again the populist leader’s preference for interest-based policies over traditional alliances.
While Trump has been mum about his second-term intentions for South Korea, many experts and observers suspect he will dust off a diplomatic playbook that pressures allies to spend more on defense, thereby allowing the US to cut its military costs overseas.
In October, the US and South Korea agreed on a new five-year cost-sharing plan to maintain 28,500 American troops in South Korea, stationed to deter nuclear-armed North Korea, that raised defense costs by 8.3% to 1.52 won (US$1.13 billion) by 2026. Earlier under Biden, Seoul agreed to increase its contribution by 13.9%, its biggest annual rise in nearly two decades.
On the campaign trail, Trump suggested he would make South Korea pay much more. “If I were there now, [South Korea] would be paying us $10 billion a year, and you know what? They’d be happy to do it,” Trump said during an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago on October 15, 2024. “It’s a money machine. South Korea.”
During his first term (2016-2020), Trump accused South Korea of “free-riding” on US military might during his previous presidency and demanded Seoul pay $5 billion annually for the US deployment.
Now, South Korea is concerned it may draw Trump trade war fire as well. Trump’s implementation of a threatened 10-20% blanket tariff and rollback of Biden-era subsidies would be detrimental to South Korea’s trade-geared economy, which sent $127.8 billion worth of exports to the US in 2024.
South Korea’s now-robust trade surplus with the US could fall by as much as $15.2 billion if Trump imposes a low-end 10% blanket tariff, according to the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a think tank.
Meanwhile, if Trump, a vocal opponent of Biden’s CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act, repeals these subsidy programs, South Korean conglomerates like Samsung, Hyundai Motor Group, LG Energy Solution and SK Hynix may suffer significant losses in the US market.
LG Energy Solution logged a second-quarter operating profit of $195.3 billion in 2024, according to regulatory filings. However, without the $447.8 billion US tax cut, this profit would reverse to a $252.5 billion net loss.
“Currently, it is uncertain if Trump will provide the subsidies. That is because Trump does not always honor previous commitments,” said Lee Jae-mook, a political science professor at the Seoul-based Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “Trump does not always play by the rules,” Lee added.
Lee also raised concerns that Seoul’s prevailing political vacuum may cause Trump to bypass South Korea when negotiating with Pyongyang.
“To Trump, what is important is not South Korea’s interests or the interests of his allies, but rather, it is the interest of the US, including diminishing North Korea’s nuclear threat,” Lee said.
“South Korea has a lot of room to leverage its interests when the US and North Korea negotiate, especially if there is an area where Seoul’s interests align with that of Washington. However, the lack of proper leadership here means that there could be a risk of ‘Korea passing,’” Lee added.
During Trump’s first presidency, then-South Korea President Moon Jae-in facilitated Trump’s meetings with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. Those overtures landed South Korea an inter-Korean military deal that lasted until 2024.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said on January 13 that it speculates that Trump will hold new talks with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.
It also projected the possibility of a “small deal” which could include “nuclear freeze and disarmament.” However, South Korea’s role in brokering such a deal would likely be slim, according to Hankuk University’s Lee.
“Frankly, the Constitutional Court could uphold President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, but it could also reinstate Yoon. From Trump’s perspective, it is unclear who his counterpart in Seoul is,” Lee said. “As of now, we are the bigger uncertainty than Trump.”
South Korea’s acting-President Choi Sang-mok said he would curb such uncertainties during a January 13 cabinet meeting.
“After the new US administration is launched, [South Korea] will mobilize all methods to communicate and coordinate with [the] US’ new government,” said Choi, who assumed the national leadership role on December 27, 2024, after his predecessor, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, was also impeached after just 13 days in office.
“We will focus on alleviating the current uncertainties and managing the country’s economic stability,” Choi added.
Choi’s ability to bring stability is uncertain, particularly amid politicized accusations he’s impeding the arrest of Yoon, who failed to appear at his first impeachment case hearing at the Constitutional Court on January 14.
As acting president of an interim government, Choi’s decision-making authority is limited, adding to the sense of political paralysis in Seoul.
“It is difficult for Choi to assert himself when it comes to politics or security,” said Lee. “The best he can do is maintain the status quo.”
Different tactics have been proposed to prepare for Trump’s presidency amid the political turmoil. International trade expert Heo Yoon, for one, has suggested that Seoul work with local conglomerates to informally approach Trump.
Trump prefers “a top-down summit diplomacy,” which South Korea currently lacks, said Heo, who noted the leverage certain Korean big businesses have in the US economy in an interview with the local Herald Business newspaper.
Others have argued that the legislature must take a more active role in diplomacy. “South Korea must send a special envoy in the name of the National Assembly Speaker to explain our diplomatic policies,” said former deputy foreign affairs minister Choi Jong-gun.
Lee, the professor, said that it is important to signal to the US that there will be no change in the US-South Korean alliance regardless of whether Yoon or the opposition prevails in the current chaos. He believes this signaling should come from the legislative chamber.
“We must show that it does not matter whether or not the impeachment of Yoon is upheld by the court. [South Korea’s] internal stance on the economic and security relationship with the US will not change,” said Lee.
“For example, leaders of the ruling and opposition parties could give a joint message saying that the US-Korea alliance is strong and that we can give a unified voice when it comes to the security threats from North Korea … We must actively put out the message that our strife is only a domestic problem.”
