India and Indonesia are apparently near a deal that will see the former to supply the latter with the BrahMos supersonic missile, a potential game-changer for security dynamics vis-à-vis-China in the southern reaches of the South China Sea.
A BrahMos missile deal was reportedly discussed during Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s recent visit to India as a guest of honor at India’s Republic Day. Prabowo met jointly with BrahMos CEO Jaiteerth Joshi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the trip.
That was followed by an Indonesian delegation visit, led by Navy Chief Muhammad Ali, to the Brahmos Aerospace headquarters. The weapon is jointly manufactured by India and Russia.
To facilitate the US$450 million deal, India has indicated it would be willing to extend Indonesia a line of credit. If the deal goes through, Indonesia would be the second ASEAN member state to acquire the formidable 290-kilometer range missile.
The Philippines purchased a $375 million anti-ship missile system from India in 2022 while sea tensions with China reached new levels.
Potent deterrent
Considering the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea’s fluid strategic and military dynamics, marked by China’s growing assertiveness and rising US-China rivalry, the BrahMos missile would likewise significantly enhance Indonesia’s deterrent capabilities.
The BrahMos supersonic missile, with a speed exceeding Mach 2.8 and both shore-based and ship-mounted versions, is a lexical blend that owes its title to the name of the Brahmaputra River of India and the Moskva of Russia.
It is a mid-range, ramjet-powered supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from all three domains – land, air, and sea. While it has a range of up to 800 kilometers, due to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) restrictions, the range of export versions is capped at 290 kilometers.
China’s increasingly aggressive posture in the Natuna Sea – leading to recent frequent confrontations with the Indonesian Navy – has heightened Indonesia’s concerns about its ability to secure its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
While BrahMos missiles would deter potential Chinese aggression in the Natuna Sea, they would also help Indonesia reach its defense modernization goals.
None of Indonesia’s Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) systems (French Exocet, Russian P-800 Oniks, and Chinese C-705 and C-802) have a range anywhere near the Brahmos’ 290-kilometer range.
Moreover, with the Philippines having signed a BrahMos deal with India and Vietnam likely to finalize a similar sale soon, the potent weapon’s proliferation in Southeast Asia will recalibrate the balance of power between China and rival Southeast Asian claimants in the disputed South China Sea.
China is well aware of BrahMos’ advanced features, including its dart-like shape for strong penetration capability, radar-absorbent coating for enhancing stealth and ramjet engine that limits adversaries’ response time.
It also has a highly accurate composite guidance system comprising the inertial navigation system (INS), satellite navigation system (SNS) and active and passive radar for advanced targeting.
Underscoring that potency, India deployed BrahMos missiles near India’s Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 2021, leading to heated reactions from China.
Indonesia’s Minimum Essential Force (MEF) program, launched in 2010, seeks to modernize its aging military hardware while balancing financial constraints. With a projected $46.6 billion defence budget for 2024-2029, Indonesia’s focus includes upgrading its air and naval capabilities.
India’s burgeoning defense industry, enabled by initiatives like “Aatmanirbhar Bharat” (self-reliant India), is well-positioned to meet Indonesia’s weaponry requirements.
In April 2024, the Indian Embassy in Jakarta hosted the inaugural India-Indonesia Defense Industry Exhibition-cum-Seminar, showcasing products from 36 Indian defense companies. Building on the momentum, the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers (SIDM) and Indonesia’s Pinhantans are expected to sign an MoU to promote joint production and technology sharing.
Indonesia’s 2012 Defense Industry Law, mandating technology transfers for major procurements, aligns well with India’s capabilities in producing cost-effective platforms like the Tejas fighter jet, BrahMos missiles and advanced naval vessels.
Despite multi-faceted defense engagements such as security dialogues, Joint Defence Cooperation Committee (JDCC) meetings, military exercises, and port visits, India’s defense cooperation with Indonesia has so far been limited. But a BrahMos missile deal would immediately make the defense partnership more substantive and meaningful.
Brothers in arms
As China’s military ambitions spread in Southeast Asia, India’s role as a reliable security partner and weapons exporter to regional countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam, is becoming increasingly significant.
Enhanced defense cooperation with Indonesia—the largest country in ASEAN and a key maritime player—is critical for India to solidify its strategic presence in the region.
President Prabowo’s military background and commitment to strengthening defense capabilities provide a unique opportunity to prioritize military collaboration with India.
Unlike former President Joko Widodo’s economics-focused diplomacy, Prabowo’s agenda emphasizes robust defense policies, making this an ideal juncture to deepen bilateral ties.
The BrahMos deal can thus work as a game-changer for India-Indonesia ties, providing the impetus for more robust defense relations while counterbalancing China’s rising military might and assertion in Southeast Asia.
Dr Rahul Mishra is a senior research fellow at the German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance, Thammasat University, Thailand, and Associate Professor at the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. He can be reached at [email protected] and followed on X at @rahulmishr_
Harshit Prajapati is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. He can be reached at [email protected] and followed on X at @harshitp_47
